PDP main in fray, Azad’s flip flop, Paharis, delimitation — why Anantnag-Rajouri is a ought to-watch seat

Politics of Jammu has been so unique from Kashmir that the final time a Kashmir-dependent occasion winning any of the two seats of Jammu was way back in 2002, when Chowdhury Talib Hussain of Nationwide Meeting clinched Jammu in a bypoll. Hussain joined the BJP in 2014. Similarly, Mufti Mohameed Sayeed was the past prospect from a countrywide party to gain in Kashmir in 1998. Sayeed, who was with the Congress, shaped the Peoples Democratic Occasion (PDP) a 12 months afterwards.
But now following the delimitation exercising, the Anantnag-Rajouri seat now stretches from one facet of Pir Panchal variety — dividing Jammu & Kashmir regions— to the Kashmir valley. The twin Muslim greater part districts of Rajouri & Poonch have now been combined with South Kashmir’s erstwhile Anantnag constituency.Political leaders argue that South Kashmir and Rajouri-Poonch have been quite unique in nature where except for the greater part faith, there is hardly something in widespread.The road connecting the two locations does not even continue being open spherical the yr. The Mughal road is shut thanks to weighty snowfall just about every calendar year and was shut earlier this week as perfectly. But, a lot of claim that the seat will determine the politics of Jammu and Kashmir for subsequent quite a few several years as the politics of two areas is established to spill on both side.“As the first trans Pir Panjal political unit in the 178-yr historical past of modern day Jammu and Kashmir due to the fact its formation in 1846, the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency retains the vital to the upcoming of politics in the previous state,” political analyst Zafar Choudhary compose in The Dispatch. “This is the route the BJP would like to acquire to create alone as a genuine player in Kashmir. For regional events Nationwide Meeting and Peoples Democratic Celebration, currently against every single other, obtaining this constituency is a make any difference of survival.”

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Dynamics in 2019
The seat is made up of 5 districts — Anantnag, Shopian and Kulgam in Kashmir, and Poonch and Rajouri in Jammu. However, 1 assembly section each and every from Shopian and Rajouri is not section of this Lok Sabha. There are a whole of 18 assembly segments in this Lok Sabha, up from 16 in 2019, after the delimitation.Anantnag, Shopian and Kulgam districts have a whole inhabitants of 17.7 lakh citizens, according to 2011 Census, of which over 98 % are Muslims. Rajouri and Poonch districts have 11.2 lakh inhabitants. Although the latter has in excess of 90 p.c Muslim inhabitants, the former has almost 62 p.c Muslim population.Even so, the culture, language and troubles are extremely different on the two sides. So is the voting pattern.
In the 2019 basic election, Anantnag observed voting of mere 8.98 %. At the time apart from the 3 districts that included 12 assembly segments, Pulwama was also component of the Lok Sabha constituency. On the contrary,  Rajouri and Poonch — then portion of the Jammu parliamentary constituency — had 65 % and over 70 % voting, according to ECI details.NC’s Hasnain Masoodi emerged victorious securing 40,100 votes in Anantnag. Out of the 12 assembly segments in the a few Kashmir districts of Anantnag, Shopian and Kulgam, the NC gained 6, the Congress four and the PDP two in 2019. The BJP experienced considerably less than 2,000 votes. Now, with the addition of Rajouri and Poonch, the BJP will become a player in the seat.In 2019, the NC was in alliance with the Congress and the PDP did not field its candidates in Jammu, which provided Rajouri and Poonch. Anantnag is also property to a sizeable populace of Kashmiri migrants, who can vote from outside the parliamentary constituency in Udhampur, Jammu, and Delhi. Past time, out of 8,153 migrants who voted in the constituency , practically 89 p.c voted in favour of the BJP. This time, the Election Fee has eased out type prerequisites for Kashmiri migrants to vote.
Gujjar-Bakarwal & Pahari issue
Although abrogation of Post 370 stays a key difficulty in the Kashmir Valley, an critical issue for Paharis was the reservation they secured, supplied by the Modi government previously this calendar year. This is anticipated to have a sizeable political bearing for the BJP.“We will vote for the BJP completely. They have fulfilled our extended pending demand,” stated a Pahari leader carefully associated in the motion for reservation considering that the 1980s. While not related with any get together, he included, “In situation BJP fields a proxy or an ally, the Pahari voter will not vote in a bloc, like they would for a BJP prospect.” There are almost 10.2 lakh Paharis in J&K, according to the Point out Advisory Board for Growth of Pahari Talking Individuals, primarily based on the 2011 Census. Whilst Rajouri and Poonch have 56 per cent Pahari speaking people, they are 8 p.c in Anantnag. In conditions of figures, Rajouri and Poonch have about 6.2 Lakh Pahari speaking inhabitants and Anantnag has 85,000.“Pahari is a language. It is registered in Plan 8 of the Indian Constitution. People today who talk this language are named Paharis, which consist of Hindu, Muslims and Sikhs,” 
Mohamed Iqbal Shah, a retired lecturer of English from the area, tells ThePrint. “It is also referred to as Muzafarabadi. It is not that people who stay in Pahar are referred to as Pahari. There are also Pahari tribes on the other side of the border.”However, the reservation to Paharis saw opposition from the Gujjar-Bakarwal group, which currently savored reservation given that 1991, fearing dilution of their reservation.  The tribes of Gujjar and Bakarwal mostly consist of nomads who adhere to Islam.Amongst the two tribes, Bakarwals are more economically marginalised. Nevertheless a significant number of Gujjars are backward far too, some have been uplifted just after the reservation quota.Gujjar-Bakkarwals comprise 35 percent of the populace of Rajouri (6.4 lakh) and Poonch (4.7 lakh) districts, in accordance to the 2011 Census. Anantnag (9,73 for every cent), Shopian (6.45 per cent) and Kulgam (5.39 per cent) also have a significant populace. 
J&K Pahari Peoples Motion chairman Shebaz Khan, involved with the motion since his college times in the 1980s, tells ThePrint, “For reservation, we thank the Modi federal government, PM Modi and in particular Household minister Amit Shah. It is a matter of tremendous celebration between our people today. For the very last 40 several years, we faced injustice. We thank the federal government for fulfilling our desire.” “Yes there will be a political affect of reservation. We are committed.”The Pahari instructor talked about previously mentioned explained, “Govt. of India comprehended the agony of Gujjar-Bakarwal 1st, and gave them ST standing. We are satisfied that it was presented. But the Pahari tribe wasn’t offered this 2-3 generations experienced to wrestle for this.“Another Pahari and ex-president Rajouri municipal council Arif Mohd thinks that denying Paharis reservation, designed a divide for so a lot of yrs amongst Paharis and Gujjar-Bakarwals.
Having said that, Mohd Ali Choudhary, a Gujjar ex-sarpanch, thinks that the transfer to give reservation to the Pahari local community was a bid to divide the two communities adding that a “local candidate” will be elected.A further Gujjar chief and chairman of Rajouri DDC, Choudhary Nassem Liaquat of NC, claimed “In this reservation, barring Gujjar Bakarwal listed here, with a person stroke of pen, all have been declared Pahari”. This, he believes, will be detrimental for Paharis on their own mainly because “ how will a Pahari from the  border area contend with a person from the city”.In the meantime, Javed Iqbal Choudhary, an ex-unbiased BDC member, believes that there is an endeavor to divide the individuals in the identify of Paharis and Gujjar-Bakerwal but that is not the situation between masses. “It (Anantnag-Rajouri) is being found as a very hot seat. I think in coming 100 years, politics will be led by this seat,” Javed Iqbal suggests. 

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Formation of seat questioned
Sharing his views about the recently developed Anantnag-Rajouri seat, former minister and PDP leader Naeem Akhtar tells ThePrint, “You see not only this seat but the total electoral cartography in Jammu and Kashmir has been through a alter, and so much as assembly election is worried, that is currently rigged 50 per cent for the reason that of the delimitation.”“It is bizarre. Individuals are distinctive. Language is diverse. Lifestyle is unique. People from there really do not know leaders right here. Leaders from here never know individuals there,” a senior Apni Social gathering leader from the location mentioned. Even a senior BJP leader appears perplexed about the redrawing of the constituency.
“Don’t know why the two areas have joined…. The kinds in Rajouri-Poonch have practically nothing in typical with the ones in South Kashmir. Rajouri-Poonch people can better associate with people today in Jammu, even while there is variation in faith,” the BJP chief tells ThePrint.Voting share is a component, way too. Even though about 60 p.c of the inhabitants of the seat life in the Kashmir Valley, Anantnag saw a feeble turnout in 2019. In the meantime, Rajouri- Poonch tends to see a considerably heavier polling. Irrespective of a lesser populace, the twin districts might turnout to be kingmakers in these types of a situation.Candidates in fray
When BJP has made a decision to stay out in Anantnag-Rajouri, PDP main Mehbooba Mufti has jumped into the fray. As an incumbent MP in 2019, she stood third. But with two INDIA allies in fray, the votes are envisioned to be divided in south Kashmir.This is her initial significant election soon after the exodus of quite a few top rated PDP leaders, led by Altaf Bukhari in 2020. 
Former minister Mian Altaf Ahmad is the NC prospect. Whilst the NC has a foundation in south Kashmir, Mian Altaf attracts his power from tribals, specially Gujjars and Bakarwals, who kind a sizable populace in the five districts. 
JKNC South Kashmir Parliament candidate Mian Altaf Ahmad Larvi addresses a large audience. A need to view!pic.twitter.com/GtPkFizKUC— JKNC (@JKNC_) April 18, 2024

However he hails from Ganderbal in central Kashmir, the NC leader is from a loved ones with religious and political affect, with sizable subsequent amid tribals. Concerning him and his father, the two have held the assembly seat of Kangan because 1967.Meanwhile, Democratic Progressive Azad Celebration (DPAP) has fielded DDC member Saleem Parray, an advocate. This was immediately after Ghulam Nabi Azad back tracked there. In an interview to ThePrint, Azad had discussed that though a area of the get together wished him to combat the Anantnag-Rajouri seat, he felt that he should really not deviate from his commitment of doing the job for the persons.The Apni Party has fielded a Pahari prospect —Zafar Iqbal Manhas from Shopian.
The BJP until now has neither endorsed nor supported any candidate directly. On the other hand, in a rally, Union House Minister Amit Shah stated Wednesday , “In this election, I have arrive to attractiveness to the voters of the valley — give vote to whoever you want to but really don’t give it to these 3 dynastic functions. Farooq Sahab, Mehbooba ji and Sonia Gandhi, all three operate for their sons and daughters.”(Edited by Tony Rai)
Also Read: In J&K’s Udhampur, Congress demands Short article 371 as BJP trumpets 370 abrogation
 


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